nano uncertainty

Uncertainty is a concept worth exploring in the context of emerging technologies. A common definition of uncertainty is a state of mind due to an incomplete of information. Probability is therefore a prevalent expression of uncertainty. We often see predictions such as "20% chance of precipitation" or " the likelihood of the outbreak of a disease is X%." Experts provide probability because they don't have sufficient information for making a conclusive call.

Uncertainty comes not only by way of insufficient knowledge, it also originates from disagreements between scientists or experts. The case of global climate change provides a vivid example. Although there is a consensus among most of the scientists that human activities are culprits of the temperature increase, the balance reporting tenet that guides American journalism makes people feel like as if much more research is still needed in order to hold human accountable. Specifically, because of the need to be objective and balanced, journalists tend to give equal space to the two contradictory views (human-induced temperature increase vs uncertain cause), even there exists some consensus in the scientific community.

See discussions by Nisbet and Mooney (2007) in Science, 316 (5821) , p56.
And Journalistic Balance as Global Warming Bias by Boykoff and Boykoff (2004).

In the case of nanotechnology, people feel uncertain because the technology is new and a lot of its risks, properties, and benefits are unclear. In Europe. uncertainty about risks, benefits, and moral acceptability of nanotechnology is found to relate to people's uncertain attitudes of how they should support nanotechnology. (support with regular regulation, support with strict regulation, ...)

More interestingly, uncertainty about nanotechnology is found to be associated with uncertainty about GMF and GMP. The result may suggest two stories:

1. There exist an underlying uncertainty about sciences and technologies. In other words, it doesn't matter which technology was the subject of the question. People's uncertainty will be there as long as science is involved.

2. People use their past experiences of GMO, biotechnology, cloning, or stem cell research and apply them in the case of nanotechnology. That is, above and beyond how much people know about nanotechnology, the mental templates created by other controversial sciences also play a role.

Inasmuch as nano-outreach personnel wants to increase nano acceptance, they need to understand these factors or mechanisms that work to shape public attitudes, or uncertainty. They need to know that, in addition to providing information about nanotechnology, they should also deal with the similarities and differences between nanotechnology and other controversial technologies that people are more familiar with.